Its painful to watch the politicians, there is a real lack of vision. This article outlines what should happen:
We do NOT need a deal with the EU to offer ‘Status Quo’. Outlined is what should happen on a no deal scenario.
1. All European produce and goods will have zero tariffs or quota being imposed. Britain can decided to do this. We do not need a deal from the EU to do this. This means businesses are unaffected on both sides, we simply keep the ‘status Quo’. This also means no border controls on goods coming in from the EU, just like it is now. This means no border control between Northern Ireland and Ireland for goods because there is no money to collect. You do not need to negotiate this, just do it.
The Irish Prime Minster vehemently insists on a no border. However, can you imagine after the UK offers zero tariffs and free trade to European Companies and goods, do you think the EU are going to build border controls in Southern Ireland? … No and if they did, the people of Ireland and Northern Ireland would kick off at the EU. The EU would be under immense pressure.
Worst case scenario, the EU build border controls in Southern Ireland to collect the WTO tariffs which are mainly circ.5%, well the pound will drop by 5% at least with a no deal and therefore manufacturing will be no worse off. However, they will be much more competitive around the rest of the world. Australia and America and other countries work happily on these tariffs.
Last point, will the EU want to do business with the 5th largest economy in the world? Its in their interests and its a near certainty the EU would fully reciprocate this (they have not organised any border controls and who is going to pay for this?).
The UK already has the same produce and goods standards as the EU, so lets not pretend we need to start checking everything.
2. When my grandparents came to the UK, the signs said, ‘No Blacks, No Dogs, No Irish’ The Irish poured into the Britain and every town changed rapidly. Today, the Polish and other Europeans poured in and towns and culture changed nearly overnight. Its not the fact no one likes the Polish, quite the opposite in fact, I married one. The point is, the horse has already bolted. We are not the Nazi’s and about to march our friends and family out of the UK, absolutely not. These people have made a life here in good faith and they should certainly not be punished in any way for Brexit and we should offer all British Citizenship free of charge. They are here anyway. You do not need a deal with the EU to offer this. You do not need to negotiate this, just do it.
But imagine for a second, the EU did not replicate this? If the EU knows whats best for itself, it will do the same or march the Brits out and act like the Nazi’s. I don’t think so.
3. The ‘Status quo’ should remain for EU citizens to work in the UK, certainly for the foreseeable future. Just as it is now. Again the horse has already bolted. We are just keeping the ‘status quo’. You do not need a deal with the EU to offer this. You do not need to negotiate this, just do it.
This solves the border control issue in Northern Ireland and Southern Ireland. NO border controls needed.
The fear in the referendum was Turkey and other countries joining and another mass migration. I’ve found in the arguments, its remainer’s who are prioritising this free movement of people. Most Brexiteers want control of their laws and sovereignty and the deal Theresa May has is not achieving this, as a priority for Brexiteers. It will mean EU still control and rule. Remainers THINK free movement is the most important element for Brexiteers, but its not.
4. a ‘divorce bill’. I and fellow citizens have been paying into the EU for over 40 years and therefore I jointly own the assets the EU own and given its a divorce, the asset need to be taken into consideration and if anything, the EU should be paying us. The EU should consider my joint ownership and fair share against the liabilities. No ‘divorce bill’ should be paid whatsoever.
I’m really angry the PM, it giving £39 billion, of my money, for what? we have no trade deal, we have nothing. All we do is give away an ace card. The EU will feel the pressure of trying to fill the black hole.
Look, the EU doesn’t like the UK independence and the fact the EU is losing control it has over the UK and short term, yes it may try and impose tariffs but these would be offset by the devaluation of the pound. A no deal shows everyone in the UK and EU, actually the UK can still fully operate, like it used too and the tables will turn, all the pressure will be on the EU. This is how to negotiate.
Now the ‘Deal’ … I fully appreciate the PM had a difficult task but she knows deep down and everyone else knows, this is a terrible, terrible deal. All the power and control will be in the hands of the EU. The deal outlines:
Member states, shall be read as including the UK. So the UK will be bound by EU laws during the Transition period. The ‘Transition period, has an undefined date sometime this century (“up to 31 December 20XX”) Article 132. But the transition period can last forever (Article 123). So what we get, is transition plus extension under EU (for as long as we are willing to pay for it) plus all the extra years ‘plus 8 years’ articles. The European Court of Justice ECJ remains sovereign, as repeatedly stipulated throughout the agreement. What’s most damaging is we agree to sign away the rights we would have under international law, to unilaterally walk away.
The European Court of Justice is decreed to be our highest court, governing the whole agreement, Art 4. Which stipulates that both citizens and resident companies can use it. Art 4.2 orders our courts to recognise this. “If the European Commission considers that the United Kingdom has failed to fulfil an obligation under the Treaties or under part four of the transition period, bring the matter before the Court of Justice of the European Union”. (Art.87). The jurisdiction of the ECJ will last until 8 years after the end of the transition period. (article 158).
Any disputes under the Agreement will be decided by EU law only – one of the most dangerous provisions. (Article 168). This cuts the UK off from International Law, something we’d never do with any foreign body. Arbitration will be governed by the existing procedural rules of the EU law – this is not arbitration as we would commonly understand it (i.e. between two independent parties). (Article 174)
The EU and its employees are to be immune to our tax laws. (Article 104)
Furthermore, the UK agrees not to prosecute EU employees who are, or who might be deemed in future, criminals (Art.101)
The tampon tax clause: We obey EU laws on VAT, with no chance of losing the tampon tax even if we agree a better deal in December 2020 because we hereby agree to obey other EU VAT rules for **five years** after the transition period.
The UK establishes a ‘Joint Committee’ with EU representatives to guarantee ‘the implementation and application of this Agreement’. This does not sound like a withdrawal agreement – if it was, why would it need to be subject to continued monitoring? (Article 164).
This Joint Committee will have subcommittees with jurisdiction over: (a) citizens’ rights; (b) “other separation provisions”; (c) Ireland/Northern Ireland; (d) Sovereign Base Areas in Cyprus; (e) Gibraltar; and (f) financial provisions. (Article 165)
The Lifetime clause: the agreement will last as long as the country’s youngest baby lives. “the persons covered by this Part shall enjoy the rights provided for in the relevant Titles of this Part for their lifetime”. (Article 39).
The UK is shut out of all EU networks and databases for security – yet no such provision exists to shut the EU out of ours.
The UK will tied to EU foreign policy, “bound by the obligations stemming from the international agreements concluded by the Union” but unable to influence such decisions. (Article 124)
All EU citizens must be given permanent right of residence after five years – but what counts as residence? This will be decided by the EU, rather than UK rules. (Articles 15-16)
Britain is granted the power to send a civil servant to Brussels to watch them pass stupid laws which will hurt our economy. (Article 34)
The UK agrees to spend taxpayers’ money telling everyone how wonderful the agreement is. (Article 37)
Articles 40-49 practically mandate the UK’s ongoing membership of the Customs Union in all but name.
The UK will be charged to receive the data/information we need in order to comply with EU law. (Article 50)
The EU will continue to set rules for UK intellectual property law (Article 54 to 61)
The UK will effectively be bound by a non-disclosure agreement swearing us to secrecy regarding any EU developments we have paid to be part. This is not mutual. The EU is not bound by such measures. (Article 74)
The UK is bound by EU rules on procurement rules – which effectively forbids us from seeking better deals elsewhere. (Articles 75 to 78)
We give up all rights to any data the EU made with our money (Art. 103)
The EU decide capital projects (too broadly defined) the UK is liable for. (Art. 144)
The UK is bound by EU state aid laws until future agreement – even in the event of an agreement, this must wait four years to be valid. (Article 93)
Similar advantages and immunities are extended to all former MEPs and to former EU official more generally. (Articles 106-116)
The UK is forbidden from revealing anything the EU told us or tells us about the finer points of deal and its operation. (Article 105).
Any powers the UK parliament might have had to mitigate EU law are officially removed. (Article 128)
The UK shall be liable for any “outstanding commitments” after 2022 (Article 142(2) expressly mentions pensions, which gives us an idea as to who probably negotiated this).
The amount owed will be calculated by the EU. (Articles 140-142)
The UK will be liable for future EU lending. As anyone familiar with the EU’s financials knows, this is not good. (Article143)
The UK will remain liable for capital projects approved by the European Investment Bank. (Article 150).
The UK will remain a ‘party’ (i.e. cough up money) for the European Development Fund. (Articles 152-154)
And the EU continues to calculate how much money the UK should pay it. So thank goodness Brussels does not have any accountancy issues.
The UK will remain bound (i.e coughing up money) to the European Union Emergency Trust Fund – which deals with irregular migration (i.e. refugees) and displaced persons heading to Europe. (Article 155)
The agreement will be policed by ‘the Authority’ – a new UK-based body with ‘powers equivalent to those of the European Commission’. (Article 159)
The EU admits, in Art. 184, that it is in breach of Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty which oblige it to “conclude an agreement” of the terms of UK leaving the EU. We must now, it seems, “negotiate expeditiously the agreements governing their future relationship.” And if the EU does not? We settle down to this Agreement. And, of course, the UK will agree to pay £40bn to receive all of these ‘privileges’. (Article 138)
The fact is, this “deal” is terrible. France couldn’t contain their excitement, rubbing there hands together, we will only give you a trade deal if France gets access to your fishing waters. Spain said, it would put them in the very best negotiating position to take Gibraltar for decades. The deal gives the UK nothing. We need to turn the tables, remove the pressure from the UK and let the EU take the heat. We want a fantastic relationship with the EU but not subservient.
The EU will not, and do not, negotiate and will not give concessions unless they are on the back foot. Its their way or the high way. I am certainly not terrified of the prospect of being independent and fully open to a new relationship, a better one.
We need to remove the clock and declare what we are going to do in the event of the no deal on 29th March 2019, with passion, confidence, opportunity and conviction.
Posted: 29th November 2018